I am a 5th-year Ph.D. Candidate at UCSB. I am interested in the economics of forest conservation and policy.

Research

Working Papers

• Effects of Paraguay’s Zero-Deforestation Policy (with Kendra Walker, Atahualpa Ayala, and Robert Heilmayr)

Countries are increasingly banning deforestation in private lands. Although this is a seemingly beneficial policy for conservation, there is little evidence about the effectiveness of such bans. We study the impacts of Paraguay’s zero-deforestation policy, a pioneer zero-deforestation commitment. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences approach, we find that the policy had null impacts on deforestation. A combination of policy forbearance and poor enforcement capacity drove the lackluster conservation impacts.

• Unequal Health Impact of Gold Mining in the Brazilian Amazon (with Yifan (Flora) He, Jacqueline de Aguiar Barros, and Robert Heilmayr)

Small-scale and artisanal gold mining (ASGM) can degrade the environment and lead to a variety of negative health outcomes associated with mercury use and mosquito-borne diseases. Gold mining has been accelerating in the Brazilian Amazon in the past decade, raising concerns over its impact on population health, especially health of Indigenous peoples. Yet, no study has systematically documented the health impact of gold mining across the Brazilian Amazon, and causal evidence is lacking. In this study, we use an instrumental variable design with cluster LASSO variable selection to isolate the effect of gold mining on health. We find that gold mining increases malaria, dengue, and Zika prevalence among the general population. Gold mining negatively affect Indigenous populations in several indicators of newborn health, and the magnitude of impact increases with time. Mining has mixed impact on newborn health among the general population. Our results highlight the broad, long-lasting, and unequal health effects of gold mining in the Brazilian Amazon. We provide key evidence to guide policy interventions in regulating gold mining and addressing its health impacts.

• Community Land-Use Consensus and Forest Outcomes (with Mark Buntaine, Yifan (Flora) He, Stuart Hamilton, and Marco Millones)

Literature on the governance of common-pool resources (CPRs) predicts that clearly defined boundaries and community consensus on resource use rules will promote effective governance of natural resources. However, empirical evidence directly testing this hypothesis is scarce. We investigate how community-level consensus on territorial boundaries and spatial land use rules are associated with forest conservation and conversion using original survey and participatory mapping data from 70 Indigenous communities in the San Martín region of Peru. We conducted an innovative mapping exercise in which community participants independently mapped their understanding of permissible land uses across their territory. Our analysis of these maps reveals two key findings: (1) areas with higher consensus on forest conservation designation exhibit significantly lower deforestation rates, while (2) areas with stronger consensus on agricultural use face greater forest loss. Our findings highlight how consensus about the rules governing land use is strongly associated with forest outcomes. This finding suggests that interventions should be deployed to help communities achieve consensus about how to use communal lands.

Works in Progress

• Forest fires and environmental law enforcement: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon

• Coca eradication and alternative development programs: evidence from Peru (with Mark Buntaine, Yifan (Flora) He, Stuart Hamilton, and Marco Millones)

Email: acostolapede@ucsb.edu